But it’s too early to say for sure what impact an iStar bankruptcy might have.
“Any decisions would need to be approved by a bankruptcy court,” said Ben Thypin, an analyst at Real Capital Analytics. “It delays the resolution.”
Read More: http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100922/REAL_ESTATE/100929938
“IStar grew as the markets shot up and concentrated in asset classes that are particularly cyclical such as hotels and construction,” said Ben Thypin, an analyst at Real Capital Analytics Inc. in New York. “Their fortunes are closely tied to the market and their future is now uncertain.”
Bankruptcy is one option the company is weighing. It is also considering a proposal to extend maturities on its debt as well as a potential exchange offer, according to two people familiar with the situation.
Read More: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-21/istar-said-to-weigh-pre-packaged-bankruptcy-filing.html
Without question, the stakes are high. Commercial real estate accounts for 6 percent of gross domestic product and property values have fallen more than 40 percent since reaching a high in 2007. The default rate for commercial mortgages held by banks has yet to peak; it hit 4.28 percent in the second quarter and is expected to climb to 5.4 percent by the end of next year. Fitch Ratings predicts "significant increases in delinquencies on commercial property loans." Overall, the U.S. economy is balanced between a return to healthy lending and economic growth and continuation of the recession amid anemic capital markets.
"The real flood of these maturing loans hasn't happened yet," said Ben Thypin, senior market analyst at research firm Real Capital Analytics.
Read More: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/18/AR2010091802850.html
But Ben Thypin, senior market analyst at Real Capital, says that on this type of portfolio there will be interest from a number of institutional sources. So far, he says the only portfolios of that size on the market lately have been lower-level properties that weren’t as attractive to investors. “There’s a lot of demand for this type of product out there,” he says. “It looks like they are just seeing if they can take advantage of a pretty good market for Class A multifamily right now.”
Read More: http://multifamilyexecutive.com/articles/dispositions-and-transactions/flournoy-nears-decision-on-8000-unit-portfolio.aspx
"Senior lenders have every legal right to foreclose, but in practice they don't want to because they have to pay millions of dollars of transfer taxes, and still need someone to buy and manage the property," said Ben Thypin, senior market analyst at Real Capital Analytics Inc, a real estate research firm.
"It will take months, if not quarters, to resolve this," he said. "The most likely scenario is an equity foreclosure by the mezzanine lenders, after they agree with the senior lenders to modify terms of the senior loan. No one could buy the property with the $3 billion loan at the current terms."
Read More: http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/09/01/bd-stuyvesanttown-idUSN0113864420100901
"The Madoff thing may have cast a pall over the rest of their investments," Ben Thypin, senior market analyst at the Manhattan-based Real Capital Analytics, speculated. Thypin added that the lingering concerns about the alleged Madoff losses may leave investors questioning how deep the impact is on the rest of the Sterling Equities business.
Read More: http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/they-gotta-believe
Ben Carlos Thypin
I am currently the co-founder of Quantierra, the world's first data driven real estate brokerage and investment manager. In my former life as Director of Market Analysis at Real Capital Analytics, I worked with press outlets large and small to provide them with great data and insightful commentary. Here are some of the results of this collaboration. For the rest, please check out the News Archive.