Memphis was in line with the rest of the nation when it came to lower commercial real estate investment sales in 2009, says Ben Thypin, senior market analyst with Real Capital Analytics, Inc., a New York City-based commercial real estate research and consulting firm.
2009 ended badly, but the drop was worse from 2007 to 2008. Commercial sales volumes were down 75% in many markets from 2007-2008, when the market was at its peak.
“I think it’s pretty safe to say that if we have not hit bottom, it’s certainly not going to get much worse,” Thypin says. “At the same time, it doesn’t mean things are going to get better, it just might not get worse.”
In other segments, properties selling include successful retail properties leased to a good tenant or really cheap properties, where people expect to profit when the market turns around, Thypin says.
An example of this was seen when Summer Center Commons LLC recently purchased a shopping center on Summer, which includes tenants Big Lots, Inc., and TJ Maxx, from Union Realty Co. GP for $3.37 million.
The credit crunch has impacted commercial sales nationally, Thypin says, with lenders amenable to lend money on good properties, but more hesitant to do so on average properties.
Basically, everyone is working to avoid a repeat of the housing collapse, but on a commercial level.
“It’s really a question of prices coming down and what is going to be the best way to do that,” Thypin says. “Is it going to be a precipitous fall which results in a fire sale of some sort, or is it a slow bleed over the next couple years? I think all of the stakeholders are going for the slow bleed, if possible.”
Read More: http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/stories/2010/03/01/story6.html?page=all
For a moment, Washington has turned the weight of its attention to commercial real estate. The Congressional Oversight Panel, established in 2008 as part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, released its newest oversight report - entitled "Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability" - on February 11, following field hearings in late January in Atlanta (see Erika Morphy's February 11 story on GlobeSt.com) . The report addresses the potential for further deterioration in commercial mortgage performance to spill over into the broader economy, thereby threatening the nation's return to economic growth. The Oversight Panel concludes that "a significant wave of commercial mortgage defaults would trigger economic damage that could touch the lives of nearly every Americans." As defaults and bank losses rise, the likelihood of a large number of bank failures increases.
Read More: http://www.globest.com/blogs/chandan/-201012-1.html?zkMobileView=true
“Why would Stephen Ross be interested? Because a fortune has been put into it already,” said Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz and Associates in Manhattan, a national retail consulting and investment firm. “The issue still is that [retail] rents are going down, space is going up, and everyone is going to want a deal. But if anyone can do it, [Ross] can.”
Ben Thypin, a senior market analyst for Real Capital Analytics in New York, echoed the latter point. He added that Related is more likely than Colony to “finish the job” at Xanadu, because Related has more experience in project management and not just real estate ownership.
“[Related] has a lot of experience in mixed-use development,” said Thypin
Read More: http://www.northjersey.com/news/020110_Real_estate_giant_in_talks_to_save_Xanadu.html
Ben Carlos Thypin
I am currently the co-founder of Quantierra, the world's first data driven real estate brokerage and investment manager. In my former life as Director of Market Analysis at Real Capital Analytics, I worked with press outlets large and small to provide them with great data and insightful commentary. Here are some of the results of this collaboration. For the rest, please check out the News Archive.